Newcomb's Box

[Rakuen Growlithe]

Let's play a game.

Two closed boxes, A and B, are on a table in front of you. A contains £1,000. B contains either nothing or £1 million. You don’t know which. You have two options:

1) Take both boxes.
2) Take box B only.

You keep the contents of the box/boxes you take, and your aim is to get the most money.

But here’s the thing. The test was set by a Super-Intelligent Being, who has already made a prediction about what you will do. If Her prediction was that you would take both boxes, She left B empty. If Her prediction was that you would take B only, She put a ₤1 million cheque in it.

Before making your decision, you do your due diligence, and discover that the Super-Intelligent Being has never made a bad prediction. She predicted Leicester would win the Premier League, the victories of Brexit and Trump, and that Ed Balls would be eliminated yesterday from Strictly Come Dancing. She has correctly predicted things you and others have done, including in situations just like this one, never once getting it wrong. It’s a remarkable track-record. So, what do you choose? Both boxes or just box B?

My answer... I'd take B only. The reasoning should be fairly self-explanatory. It's only interesting if there is someone who wants to argue for taking both boxes.

[Faanvolla]

Unless the banks are in on it, I doubt they'll let me cash a million quid cheque signed for by 'intelligent being', so I'll have box A with cash thanks. ( so both)
Also, my aim is to make the most money, but maybe her aim is to have me make the least amount, so leaving B empty makes her odds better, no matter how good her guessing is.

[Darq]

One of those puzzles with no definitive solution. I'll take box B, she's never been wrong before.

Edit:
I can see the argument for taking both though. After her prediction, she cannot change the contents of the boxes, so there is no downside to just grabbing both.

I'll still stick with just B though.

[CyntheWightRabbit]

Let's play a game.

Hmm... e_e

Is there a gun to my head if I decline both options? Because honestly, colour me paranoid or whatever, if I were to be put in this situation I'd be suspicious as hell. Money for free? What's the catch? And don't get me started on the supposed 'Super-Intelligent Being'.

If anything, given these Sci-Fi esque vibes, I'd end up comparing it to The Box. You know that below average thriller movie with Cameron Diaz in it. And knowing how that ended...

So neither? :v

[Rakuen Growlithe]

Also, my aim is to make the most money, but maybe her aim is to have me make the least amount, so leaving B empty makes her odds better, no matter how good her guessing is.

She has no aim nor cares what you gain.

[Galahad]

From a strictly mathematical perspective, it all boils down to the question "how likely is it that she is omniscient (i.e will always be correct)?" If the probability is greater than zero, then always choosing "take B only" is the option that will tend to have the higher yield.

If she is definitely not omniscient (which is quite believable: with a large enough sample, at least one person can make several correct predictions in a row without omniscience, but that in no way guarantees he will be correct in his next guess), then I would say "take both" will have the higher yield: this is because irrespective of whether she is correct or not, you will always win something (either 1000 or 1 million + 1000, versus the 0 or 1 million of choosing "take B only"). If she is not omniscient and has no knowledge of who I am or what I am like, then her chances are effectively as good as 50/50, leading to the slightly higher yield of "take both". (An average of 500 higher, to be exact.)

So, simply put... The question has no absolutely correct answer. Nonetheless, I shall assume she is just someone from a large enough sample to have someone guess everything correctly (one could say she was "statistically naturally selected") and is not omniscient, and thus shall go with "take both".

[Sudan Red]

Take both - either end up with $1,000 or $1,001,000 more than I had before. The super intelligent being's prediction is irrelevant to my gain.

[Splicer-Fox]

Why is this “Super-Intelligent Being” a female?
I already don’t trust it =_=

I pick Box B.
The reason is because she predicted you would ONLY get 1 mil exactly.
Box A can only be 1000 and B can only be 1 mil. (if the other one is NOT opened)
If you take box A as well as B you would lose your 100% guarantee chance you will at least get 1 mil. (Then you would be gambling)

[Adagio]

I take B...

What does R1000 extra matter?

[Cape_F0X]

I won't play her game! She is just going to sell my contact details and then I'm going to get spammed.

[jacojerb]

The only reason one would take both is if she is wrong. As this has been given as impossible, or at least highly improbable... Just take the million and run

[Ryall]

If she were a super-intelligent, advanced being with prediction skills, then I would expect her to anticipate me finding out about the rules of her game doing my due diligence.

It's her prediction - not my decision - which affects whether I get a million or not. Who cares about the thousand when a million is at stake?

I don't know how she makes her predictions - and whether I can deceive her or not - so there may be a risk she detects my intentions. If I try to deceive her by taking both boxes, I might give away my intentions to her in some way I - being a simple being relative to her - cannot conceive, in which case I lose the million. I therefore take only B, hoping she either anticipated this thought process of mine, or that she figures out my intention in some other way.

I agree with Splicer, Adagio and Jacojerb.

[Sev]

And if she's like the Christian god, she might just smite me for doubting her - a measly $1K is not worth the risk of upsetting an omniscient, omnipotent being...

Also, I find it funny that the people in this thread have referred to 3 separate currencies.

[Contrast]

But is she hot? That is the question.

[TheOldWolf]

But is she hot? That is the question.

Money from a hot deity. Now you're pushing it.

I'd go with Box B. Because hey larger value of money and if she is knobbish and goes "lul nope" I'm not bothered anyways. \._./

Can this deity be a bunny?

[Rakuen Growlithe]

Well here's how I see it. She knows I want to get the most money, which would mean taking both, but I know that if she knows I will take both then taking both will give me only a small amount of money. So if she's smart enough to make these predictions then she knows that I will know that is what I would normally do and that I know it would not work. But if I know that then she knows that I will take B because I know she knows that I know that taking both would be predicted and work badly so I would rather take B to get the million. She would know that I know that trying to double bluff could backfire and leave me with less so the smartest thing would be to only take B.

Also now that she has read this she knows that I will take B and not both so her prediction is even more likely to be correct. By posting that you would take both you have ruined your chances of ever getting the million.

[Sev]

Damn, this was all a setup!

[Adagio]

Which is why being greedy is a bad idea!